Half of Shopify brands don't peak in BFCM. They still pay for it.

Your CPA is about to climb. Black Friday brands are bidding on the same attention space you are. You're not going to win Black Friday, and you shouldn't try.

Northbeam and Shoplift are running a free 60 minute masterclass on what to do instead.

Presented by:
Shoplift logoNorthbeam

Thursday, October 8 · 11AM ET · 60 minutes · Free

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Who this is for

You already know Black Friday isn't your moment. Nobody writes content for that.

Webinar recording coming soon
Every BFCM guide published this month isn’t for you.

This session is built for you if:
Your Q4 peak is not Black Friday, and your product does not move as a gift
Your CPA climbs through November whether or not you change anything
You have no discount that can compete with 40% off sitewide
You run subscriptions and November is really a retention month for you
If you're a BFCM brand with a real offer, this isn't your session. Go run it. We'll be here in December.

Two sides of the same problem:
what you spend, and what you convert.

Bryan runs the acquisition side from Northbeam's data. Nick runs the conversion side from Shoplift's.
The whole hour answers one question: your CPA is going up in November, so what do you do about it?

Northbeam
Acquiring Traffic
What Northbeam's data shows about CPA trends for non-peak categories through November. When to pull back on spend and when to hold. Why an evergreen offer can't compete for that inventory. Where the money should go instead.
Shoplift logo
Converting Traffic
Which operating mode your store should be in during BFCM season, and what tests belong in that mode. How to use November's higher-intent traffic to bank cleaner learnings. What has to be true on your site by December 1.
What you'll leave with:
A read on what BFCM season does to your unit economics, not generic Black Friday advice
A spend decision for November: what to cut, what to hold, what to move
A short list of CRO moves you can make in October, before the noise starts
A plan for the first two weeks of December, when ad costs fall and attention comes back

Four things happen to non-peak brands every November.

Thousands of advertisers raise budgets in the same four weeks and bid on the same inventory. The clearing price goes up for everyone in the auction, including the brands with nothing to sell that week. Your creative didn't get worse. The room got more expensive.

Your CPMs spike and you did nothing to deserve it.
Thousands of advertisers raise budgets in the same four weeks and bid on the same inventory. The clearing price goes up for everyone in the auction, including the brands with nothing to sell that week. Your creative didn't get worse. The room got more expensive.
In this Session
What Northbeam's data shows about how far and how long.
Everyone is discounting. You can't.
Your margin doesn't support 40% off, or your brand doesn't do discounts, or you have nothing seasonal to put behind one. So you're in the auction competing against offers you can't match, for a shopper who is specifically hunting the thing you're not selling.
In this Session
What to put in market when you have no discount to lead with.
Demand for what you sell isn't there right now.
The problem isn't only cost. Nobody buys a spring garden kit in November. When the underlying demand is soft, spending harder against it makes the month worse, not better.
In this Session
How to tell soft demand from a broken funnel, and what to do about each.
Your testing program has nowhere to go for a month
Most teams go dark in November because the traffic looks weird and nobody wants to read a test against BFCM noise. Then December arrives and the site is the same one you had in October.
In this Session
What belongs on a November test list and what to leave alone.

BFCM content for brands that don't peak in BFCM

We publish content throughout the year for DTC operators.

Questions from brands that don't peak in November

What should a brand do during BFCM if Black Friday isn't their peak season?

Three things. Protect your margin instead of buying into an auction you can't win, keep testing so the traffic you already have converts better, and get your site ready for the first two weeks of December when ad costs drop and attention comes back. The mistake most non-peak brands make is going quiet in November, which means they arrive in December with the same untested site they had in October.

Why does my CPA go up in November even though I'm not running a BFCM offer?

Because you're bidding against every brand that is. Paid inventory is a shared auction, so when thousands of advertisers raise budgets and put a 40% offer behind their creative, the clearing price goes up for everyone in the auction, including you. Your creative didn't get worse. The competition got more aggressive and better funded, and your evergreen offer has to compete against a discount.

Should I pause my A/B tests during Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

If you're running BFCM offers, yes, mostly. Your traffic mix is distorted and your results won't generalize. If you're not running offers, the opposite is true. Your November traffic is more intentional than your usual mix, which makes it good test traffic. The thing to change is not whether you test but what you test: incremental optimization rather than structural experiments you can't read cleanly against a noisy backdrop.

What is the post-BFCM window and why does it matter?

After November 30 the brands that ran Black Friday offers pull them offline and cut spend. Ad costs fall and consumer attention frees up. For a brand with a tested, optimized site, that's the cheapest high-intent traffic of the quarter. The window is short, so it goes to whoever prepared during November rather than whoever reacts in December.

Is it worth running CRO tests if my traffic drops in November?

It depends on your volume. If November traffic falls far enough that you can't reach significance in a reasonable window, run fewer tests on higher-traffic pages rather than the same number spread thin. What doesn't work is stopping entirely and restarting in January, which costs you the December window.

What if demand for my product is genuinely low in November?

That's a different problem from an expensive auction and it needs a different answer. Spending harder against soft demand makes the month worse. The session covers how to separate a demand problem from a conversion problem, and what each one calls for.

How is Shoplift's testing different from element-level A/B testing?

Shoplift tests at the theme level. Instead of changing one button or one headline and measuring that in isolation, you run a complete variant of the store experience against your current one and see how the whole thing performs. It's built natively into Shopify, so tests go live the same week rather than sitting behind an engineering backlog. For a brand deciding what its site should look like on December 1, that speed is the difference between shipping the change and missing the window.

My business is subscription-based. Does this apply to me?

Yes, and the emphasis shifts. For subscription brands, November is usually a retention problem before it's an acquisition problem. Churn and the subscriber experience carry more of your revenue during a month when new customer acquisition gets expensive. The session and the playbook both cover the retention side.

Do I need to attend live?

No. Register and we'll send you the recording either way. Live attendees can ask questions, which is the main reason to show up.

Presented by:
Shoplift logoNorthbeam
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